Scenario Analysis
The Scenario Analysis allows us to describe the possible evolution of economic and financial phenomena by hypothesizing alternative trends (scenarios) of some guiding variables.
Generally, a probability is attributed to each scenario reflecting the greater or lesser possibility that the underlining hypotheses will happen. The end-users can choose which forecasts are more useful: those provided by the most probable scenario or those more consistent with their expectations.
The Scenario Analysis can generate conditional forecasts relating to both macroeconomic and financial variables.
The Scenario Analysis can also satisfy the information need arising in the planning and impact assessment processes of EU, national and local policies. Regional models allow the user to continuously monitor the changes in expectations caused by policy changes implemented in the short term.
GRETA currently has two tools for Scenario Analysis, one international and one regional, but new strategies could be designed, prototypes implement, and analyses on demand performed.
Internationa Model

Regional Model

People

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Recent pubblications in this area
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Lifelong Learning Policy and Regional Development: Evidence from an EU Case Study
Volo F, Drigo A, Zolin M B, Sartore D