| JOINT MEETING
PROGRAMME Day 1: Thursday-June 8, 2000 8:30 Registration 9:00 Welcome Address MORNING SESSION: THE EFFECTS OF EU MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY, part I 9:15 Forecasting EMU Inflation: A Disaggregated Approach by Countries and Components, A. Espasa, R. Albacete and E. Senra, Universidad Carlos III, Madrid 10:15 The Fiscal Dimension of a Common Monetary Policy: Results with a Non-Ricardian Global Model, S. Sgherri, De Nederlandsche Bank 11:15 Coffee 11:30 Financial Structure and the Interest Channel of the ECB Monetary Policy, B. Mojon, European Central Bank 12.30 Lunch AFTERNOON SESSION I: THE EFFECTS OF EU MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY, part II 14:00 Monetary Processes in the Balkan's Transition Countries Economies, M. Garvalova, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences 14:45 Modelling the Demand for M3 in the Euro Area, R. Golinelli and S. Pastorello, Università di Bologna 15:45 Monetary Policy in
a Monetary Union: Should Information at the National Level Play a Role?
16:45 Ice cream AFTERNOON SESSION II: EXCHANGE RATES AND FINANCIAL MARKETS ANALYSIS 17:15 A Global Hazard Index for the World Foreign Exchange Markets, V. Brousseau and F.Scacciavillani, European Central Bank 18:15 Measuring Co-movements Between US and European Stock Markets, A. Bonfiglioli and C. Favero, Università Bocconi di Milano 19:00 Close of session
Day 2:
Friday-June 9, 2000 MORNING SESSION: EXCHANGE RATE EURO/OTHER CURRENCIES (Chairman: John Velis, Intesa Asset Management) 9:00 Euro/Dollar Exchange Rates: A Monthly Econometric Model for Forecasting, D. Sartore, L. Trevisan, M. Trova and F. Volo, Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia, Intesa Asset Management, Milano and GRETA, Venezia 10:00 Explaining and Forecasting the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate. Using Threshold Models to Capture Non-linearities Involved by Business Cycle’s Developments and Equity Markets’ Dynamics, A. Jamaleh, Banca Commerciale Italiana, Milano 11:00 Coffee 11:30 Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework, E. Alberola, S. G. Cervero, H. Lopez and A. Ubide, Banco de Espagna, Deutsche Bank, The World Bank and IMF 12.30 Lunch SPECIAL SESSION: MARKET MONITORING AND MARKET SENTIMENT (PANEL) (Chairman: Luca Paolazzi, Il Sole 24 Ore ) 14:00 Short Term Statistics for Monitoring Euro, D. Ladiray and G.L. Mazzi, EUROSTAT, 14:45 Euro: Going with the Flow, P. Mortimer-Lee, BNP Paribas, London, Devaluation, Inflation and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area, G. De Felice, Research Division, Banca Commerciale Italiana, Fundamental Views of
Euro/Dollar Parity: An Investor Perspective, M. Annenberg, SSB
Citi Asset Management Group, London, 18:00 Close of session and cocktail
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