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Purposes
With MEFIM, GRETA
aims to satisfy the demand for information required by the
processes of Financial Planning (Strategic Asset and Liability
Management, Budgeting). It provides alternative scenarios
regarding the evolution of the principal monetary and financial
indicators of the Italian and International markets.
The tools that provide a knowledge of the external environment
can be of a quantitative or of a qualitative nature. In MEFIM both types of instrument are used simultaneously in order
to increase the effectiveness of the information. The MEFIM model is produced on a monthly basis in the following two
phases:
- The identification or definition of relevant news in the
Italian and International macroeconomic scenario is established
by collecting information available in newspapers, reports
and from news agencies, data providers (e.g. Reuters, Bloomberg,
Datastream, Radiocor) . Processing of hypotheses of alternative
scenarios on the basis of the critical points identified.
Meeting of the GRETA FINANCIAL COMMITTEE, composed of professors
from Ca' Foscari of the University in Venice, experts from
the banking sector and members of the GRETA research team,
to evaluate the trends of the exogenous variables of the
model and to check their consistency with the results obtained
from the endogenous variables of MEFIM.
- The use of the econometric model based on the inter-relationship
between the financial variables and their relationships
with real and monetary policy variables to quantify the
reaction of the market to different scenarios.
Every month, for a time horizon of 1-year, are published
the trends and forecasts for InterBank interest rates, Italian
interest rates, term structures and bank volumes, as well
as international term structures, for different scenarios.
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